Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Anatomy of a Closer

Closers can easily be the most frustrating players on your roster. Nothing hurts worse than blowing a lead in the ninth inning.

Fortunately for me, I have a great closer in Ebenezer Wilkins. Or do I? Let's take a look at what makes a "great" closer.

First things first - there is no "clutch" element in HBD. A player with poor patience or temper has no impact on his ability to perform late in games.

Stamina
To be an effective closer, he should have a stamina of at least 25, preferably 30. If he puts a couple of runners on, he needs to have enough gas left in the tank to finish the inning. Remember, a pitcher's effectiveness decreases with every pitch. As for my guy, Wilkins? His stamina is 20. Definitely less than ideal.

Control
I like my closers to have a control rating of at least 80. Why? Simple. The goal of any closer is to keep runners off the basepaths. However, after looking at the statistical save leaders this season, there doesn't seem to that much of a correlation between walks and blown saves. I might need to do some more detailed statistical analysis to find out why this is the case.

Splits
To me, the most important rating for a closer is his vsR split. Using a closer with less than 80 vsR is a recipe for disaster. vsR split is probably THE most important rating in the game. If you can't get right handed hitters out, you are doomed. The stats support this - the closers with < 80 vsR clearly blow saves at a much higher rate. I would not use a left hander as a closer unless he had > 80 vsL and vsR. Even then, I'd probably use the lefty as a setup guy.

Velocity
Higher velocity = more strikeouts. You want your closer to miss bats with his pitches. However, with a closer pitching a limited amount of innings, I'm not convinced that velocity is very important for a closer. See the next section as an example. Also, power pitching versus power batting can lead to giving up more home runs.

GB/FB
In my opinion, closers (generally) do not pitch enough innings in a given season to get rid of the randomness of home runs. I have seen closers with high GB/FB ratings give up twice as many homers in a season as a closer with a low GB/FB. Obviously, an above average defensive outfield can also help counter the effect of a poor GB/FB rating, and vice versa.

Pitches
It is imperative for a closer to have an excellent (>85) 1st pitch, and very helpful to have a 2nd pitch of at least 65-70. The combination of poor pitches and a low PC rated catcher can lead to disaster. For example, Wilkins' 2nd pitch is rated 49. In 2 of the 3 leads that Wilkins blew in the ninth inning, my 51 PC rated catcher was in the game.

In summary, I believe the most important factors that make a closer great are:
1. High vsR rating
2. High PC rated catcher behind the plate
3. A defense optimized for your park and your pitcher's style (GB/FB)
4. Luck